Sports Betting as an Investment
Michael Gibbons' Sports is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. I handicap sports based upon my proprietary handicapping systems, situational pattern analysis, conditional probability gaming theory, and contrary opinion. Because of the power of my work, clients have averaged 237 Net Units profit per year over the last eleven years. I publish the Gibbons' Sports Best Bets Newsletter on a daily basis.
In addition to being a sports handicapper, I am also a highly respected stock, bond, currency and futures trader. I am quoted in many top financial publications including Timer Digest and Forbes. I won the highly prestigious Timer Digest Timer of the Year award in 2002 and 2007, and my clients have millions of dollars in assets under management. I have outperformed several hundred of the world's best investment minds on a consistent basis. I bring the same kind of analysis to the world of sports investing. Many professional and amateur sports investors in Las Vegas, the nation, and the world, rely on me for my sports plays, research and information.
I have a BA in Economics from California State University Long Beach. I worked for several large corporations as cost controller and head of finance. My interest changed to markets after my corporate experience, where my unconventional methods and original thinking could be better applied. I was a pioneer in technical market analysis and was one of the first to discover stock index arbitrage in the early 1980s. I was a financial broker and owned my own brokerage firm. In addition, I was one of the first registered commodity trading advisors. I have long background in probability theory and statistics, and my stock screen/trading model is considered by many of my clients to be the best in the world. I was asked by several of my major investment clients to apply my methods to sports betting ten years ago. After a doing intensive research, it was clear that sports betting was highly profitable if done properly. Sports betting should be viewed as a viable investment class as evidenced by the fact that it is a way to diversify holdings and performance is not correlated to other common investments.
Because of my success both in trading financial markets and handicapping sports, I have been interviewed by Forbes reporter John Dobosz seven times over the past five years, and by Timer Digest over a hundred times. My interviews appear on the internet as well as in print editions. How many sports handicappers do you know that have been quoted numerous times by influential financial publications? I can tell you the answer to that question-no one else on the planet.
http://www.forbes.com/2003/01/18/cz_jd_0117adviser.html
I do not gamble-I invest (and there is a huge difference). Investors have a statistical advantage or edge that will always payoff over the long run. Gamblers create risk, because in no way can they obtain a long term edge-that is, probability is always working against them. As an example, craps, roulette, and video poker players are losers because the house has an irrefutable edge in all of these games. Most sports bettors play as if they were gamblers-and they lose many thousands of dollars each year because they simply do not have the knowledge necessary to win. To keep and maintain an edge, I use my proprietary selection systems, contrary opinion, conditional probability, and statistical pattern recognition to forecast game results.
If you don't think that a winning percentage (including money line sports) of 54-56% is profitable enough-you have unrealistic expectations. I know of no handicapper public or private, that can win significantly more than 55% of the time over many thousands of games-it simply cannot be done. If you think you or anyone else can win over 55% of the time-you are wrong. Even if you are a winner and you keep a complete record of your plays, you will see that you win no more than 55% of the time. Winning 54-55% of the time gives you an acceptable return on investment over time.
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity
Sports Services
If you want to know about the current state of sports handicapping, just look at the lies, deception, and hype that the majority of sports services use to promote their plays to the public. Claims of 90% documented winners, a Game of the Year/Game of the Month every day, *10,000* star lock of the century, inside information lock of the decade, never lost in this situation, etc. The only thing more amazing than the bs that most sports services put out is the gullibility and stupidity of their customers.
My opinion is that possibly 5% of all sports services are legitimate, and the balance are scams. Most of the operators of these services are nothing more than low class hustlers and are the kind of people that sell fake Rolex watches on the streets of New York. And some of the big media guys are the worst offenders.
As you should have noticed, virtually all sports services rely on a combination of super aggressive in your face marketing coupled with highly deceptive hype, with frequent use of "locks", "Games of the...", and "guaranteed" plays. There is no such thing as a "lock" and there never will be. Winning in sports investing is about probability-not about certainty. A lock implies certainty-which absolutely no one can attain in sports investing. Therefore, any handicapper that uses the word "lock" is insulting your intelligence. The same goes for "Games of the...." You need to get that this is marketing hype-to get you to buy their plays. We can assure you that all of their "Games of the Year" are no better in terms of performance, than any other game. A common scam is the "pay after you win" policy which is also deceptive. The sports service might be flipping a coin to determine plays, and then charging you if they win-which probably is less than 50% of the time. The only thing that matters is long term performance-not a guarantee for a day, a week, or a month. If you think otherwise, you are deceiving yourself as much as the sports service that is trying to deceive you.
Where can I find the track records of every single sports handicapper? Good question. Unlike others in this industry, I fully disclose the results of my plays on a daily and historical basis and I also calculate the P&L for my daily plays. This process is called full disclosure.
Before you pay any handicapper, ask them for a complete track record (results for every season) in tabular form as I provide on the Track Record page. If you ask for their record, I doubt they will provide it because I have not seen a complete track record for any other handicapper on the internet. The absence of such disclosure tells you a lot about the ability of other handicappers to pick winners on a long term basis. They all hype their alleged short term winning streaks-that is all bs in my view. Where is the long term record? Have they won or lost on a long term basis?
What do I think of other handicappers? Basically, not very much. Most of them have numerous conflicts of interest which makes their plays suspect. I am not tied in with any offshore sports books or establishment personnel. I do my own thing and I do it well- which is winning for myself and my clients.
I have consistently produced winners for ten years. There are many pretentious pretenders out there-I offer the real deal. I do not find it necessary to hype myself or brag about how great I am, etc. My track record speaks for itself with nothing added by me. All the plays I issue to clients have at least a 56% theoretical probability of winning which includes money line sports.
I provide my clients with the edge needed to be successful. However, less than 10% of all sports bettors have the proper psychological profile to be winners in my view. You must be totally disciplined and have a very high level of self esteem if you want to be a winner. This excludes at least 90% of all sports bettors, and is part of the reason for the high failure rate.
Successful sports handicapping is not easy. If you think otherwise, you do not understand gaming probability theory and realistic rates of return. I stated six years ago on this site that sports investing is always a marathon-never a sprint. I notice a few other handicappers have "borrowed" my phrase without giving me proper credit. That aside, it is more true than ever that winning in sports investing is a long term affair. I have found over the years that those with the shortest term investment views are the least likely to succeed. If you are short term oriented-you are a gambler-not a sports investor. Investors can win-gamblers always lose.
Results for 5/8:
+2.61 Net Units
The historic run continues as MLB wins again and NBA splits
**New historic high for Net Units won +2615.02**
VR Late-Game Best Bets are now 13-1 (92.8%) in 2008 +178.91 Net Units
+383.29 Net Units in 2008
+444.07 Net Units L138
This is a $44,407 Net Profit for a $100 bettor and a $444,070 Net Profit for a $1000 bettor over the last 138 days
The graph above shows my most recent performance history (note that I have over a ten year performance record). The blue line is the long term historic running total of Net Units won, and the red line is a 200-day moving average of the sum of the Net Units. I use a 200-day moving average because it is a solid indication of the long term trend of Net Units won. My handicapping results show a positive expectation (I win). This allows me to know that any deviation or losing streak that takes me below the mean (the moving average) will not last. I will start a winning streak 100% of the time after a losing streak.
*Note that both the 200-day moving average and the running total of Net Units won just made new historic highs. This is very positive and a clear indication of the continuing upward trend in Net Units won.
Notice that when the blue line is substantially below the moving average, there is the statistical tendency to regress to the mean. That is, if I am on a losing streak, results will tend to come back to the moving average. This is called mean-regression in statistics.
Everyone has losing streaks, and since I use a systematic approach to handicapping, I have a normal variance in results. Most sports investors underestimate the length and severity of any losing streak. Because of this, they also underestimate the amount of capital (bankroll) they will need to weather the storm and be successful. My view is that you need to have enough capital to withstand at least a 10% loss (drawdown) in running Net Units from the most recent high equity point achieved. This provides an additional cushion if we should lose more than our average historical drawdown which is 7.1%. (Note the recent historical drawdown percentages labeled on the chart).
Today's Best Bets
check back at 7 AM PT
New historic high for Net Units won +2615.02 made on Thursday 5/8/2008
VR Late-Game Plays 81.8% over the last 7 years/92.8% (13-1) for +188.91 Net Units in 2008
NBA +97.2 Net Units this season
NHL +67.07 Net Units this season
MLB +32.37 Net Units this season
Please read the following if you are buying my Best Bets:
My Best Bets are priced to reflect the fact that I win on a consistent basis- as all of my subscribers know. You will receive my Best Bets about 10 minutes after your payment approval. If I have any Vegas Rotation Late-Game Plays, they will be sent to you at least 30 minutes before the start of the late game or games. If you are looking for 1-2 Best Bets per day, you came to the wrong site. If you are unwilling to reduce your risk per game by investing in multiple numbers of plays, you are an amateur and probably a loser. Losers play small numbers of games, while professionals play on any game where they have an edge. If I have an edge in 13 games, I will play them all.
Line Moves
My Best Bets move lines about 67% of the time and the line moves are not in our favor the vast majority of the time. This is because of the large amount of capital our clients and us control, and the fact that many sports books subscribe to my service. Monthly and Yearly subscribers receive my Best Bets first, and this enables them to get down as early as possible. If you want the most favorable situation, you need to be subscriber or you need to purchase my Best Bets as early in the day as possible.
Fade Me
You may think you can fade my Best Bets and turn a profit. My advice: don't even think about it-you will certainly lose money in the long run as others have over the past ten years. I know gamblers try to fade me because I see dozens of new people purchase my Best Bets, the plays win, and these people go away- never to be heard from again. You are not sharp enough to know when (or if) I will lose- it's that simple.
My Free Play
My Free Plays on this site have a record of 809-486 (62.4%) for +438.93 Net Units over the last 10 years. My Free Play will be an opinion- not a Best Bet. If you want all of our Best Bets including the recommended units to play (money management), you must be a subscriber.
Over the past 14 months, I have won 86.8% of my Free Plays. Although at some point this winning percentage will likely regress to the mean, there is no way of knowing when that will be. So while it lasts, take advantage of this incredible winning run.
There is no Free Play for Friday.
