Historic Track Record
Sports Betting As An Investment
(all records include vigorish)
-118.2 units in football
+882.13 units in baseball
+457.22 units in basketball
+1,243.36 units in hockey
+2,464.51 net units last 12 years
Average Profit Per Year= +205.3 units
**We are on a strong winning streak in that the 200-day moving average is rising and the blue line (units won) is above the moving average**
The graph above shows some recent performance history from mid-2004 (note that I have over a twelve year performance record). The blue line is the long term historic running total of units won, and the red line is a 200-day moving average of the sum of the units. I use a 200-day moving average because it is a solid indication of the long term trend of units won. When the red line (200 day moving average) is rising- it means we are in a long term uptrend and that we are on a long winning streak.
My handicapping results show a positive expectation (I win). This allows me to know that any deviation or losing streak that takes me below the mean (the moving average) will not last. I will start a winning streak 100% of the time after a losing streak.
Notice that when the blue line is substantially above or below the moving average, it tends to regress to the mean. That is, if I am on a losing streak, results will tend to come back to the moving average. Note that by the same logic, if the daily running total of units won is substantially above the moving average, there is a tendency to pull back to the red line as well. This is called mean-regression in statistics.
Everyone has losing streaks, and since I use a systematic approach to handicapping, I have a normal variance in results. Most sports investors underestimate the length and severity of any losing streak. Because of this, they also underestimate the amount of capital (bankroll) they will need to weather the storm and be successful. My view is that you need to have enough capital to withstand a potential 15% loss (drawdown) in running units from the most recent high equity point achieved. This provides an additional cushion if we should lose more than our average historical drawdown which is 8.1%. (Note the recent historical drawdown percentages labeled on the chart).
The two most important elements in sports betting are patience and discipline (PAD). We go through natural periods of losses and periods of gains. It is easy to stay focused and disciplined when we are winning, but most find it a lot harder to be disciplined when we are losing. Those that have the proper psychological makeup and have PAD- can show large profits year after year.
